The Most Dangerous Words in Diplomacy? "I Think…"

Let me give it to you straight.

The most dangerous words in a negotiation room?

“I think…”

I’ve seen it over and over.

“I think they’ll support us.”
Did they say that?
Or are you guessing?

“I think this is how it works.”
Have you tested it?
Or are you assuming?

“I think we made progress.”
Based on what?
What changed? What shifted?

Diplomacy isn’t built on thoughts.

It’s built on:

• Data: Real positions. Voting records. Quiet signals.

• Relationships: Not just contacts, but trust.

• Leverage: What you hold that they need, fear, or want.

When Indigenous leaders walk into negotiations based on gut feeling, hope, or optimism:

We lose.

Because the ones who know?

The ones who tracked every vote.
Built the relationships in advance.
Tested the limits before the meeting?

They walk circles around us.

And not because they’re better.
But because they’re better prepared.

What That Looks Like in Real Time

Talk less.
Listen more.
Ask the second question.
Watch who talks to who after the session ends.

Track everything.
Who paused before answering?
Who shifted language mid-week?

This is the work.
Not just showing up.
But gathering the real intel.

The kind you can use.

Before You Go

You don’t have to be loud in this space.
But you do have to be precise.

So next time someone says:
“I think…”

Stop them.
Ask what they know.
Ask how they know it.

That shift?
It’s small. But it changes everything.

Because in diplomacy:

The people who know always move faster than the ones who think.

That’s the edge.

See you next week!