7 Things I Learned This Week (The Full Read Is Still Emerging)
On why 2026 isn't 2024 with harder negotiations.
What’s up team,
I was supposed to write about something else today.
The BBNJ Agreement entering into force. What it means for Indigenous participation in ocean governance. The architecture questions that are about to matter. How it can impact our work in climate change, human rights, plastics, biodiversity and other places.
That piece is coming. But this week changed the plan.
Saturday afternoon I wrapped a full week of meetings. Bilateral conversations. Strategy sessions. The kind of closed-door discussions where people say what they actually think instead of what looks good in a formal statement.
My notes are a mess. My assessment is running around 20 pages right now. Still finding the patterns. Still connecting dots between what different people told me in different rooms.
And I have more meetings next weeks. More data points coming. I’m still triangulating assumptions, testing what I’m hearing against what others are seeing, pressure-testing the conclusions.
But I wanted to share the broad strokes while they’re fresh.
Here’s the TLDR:
1. The budget crisis is really a protection crisis in disguise.
This came up in almost every conversation.
When people say “efficiency process,” they mean fewer human rights oversight, a.k.a bad news for the Treaty Bodies and the Special Procedures. When they say “mandate consolidation,” they mean fewer eyes on what states do.
The framing is about money. The effect is political.
To be very frank, if you still think this is just a funding problem, you’re missing the point. The budget talk is the cover story. Weaker protection is the result.
2. Classic allies are shifting faster than anyone wants to say out loud.
EU, Norway used to be the anchor. Reliable. Values-driven. The kind of friends you could build your coalition math around for a decade.
Now they’re pushing mandate mergers.
Here’s the thing though. This isn’t betrayal. It’s a shift in what they gain and lose.
The cost of defending strong human rights positions went up. The reward for “streamlining” got more attractive. Pressure at home changed the math.
I’m rethinking who to count on. You should too.
3. BRICS isn't just coordinating anymore. It's acting as one unit.
Let me step back for a second.
In 2024, BRICS was loose. Informal. They lined up on some votes when it helped them.
In 2025, they worked like a formal team.
The shift happened faster than I thought it would. This changes how my strategy works. Who has power. Where the real deals happen. The hallway math is different now.
4. The March HRC session is the moment to watch.
Indonesia holds the chair. The makeup of the HRC membership is not in our favor. 2024 was ok, 2025 was bad, 2026 will be unforgiving. Also. Several big processes hit at once.
Mind you, I’m not saying March decides everything.
But if you plan to engage the Human Rights Council this year, that’s where the system gets tested. Hold on, that’s where your finesse in strategizing gets tested. That’s where we see if the new math holds when real votes happen on real text.
Watch March. It sets the tone for the rest of the year.
5. IPs and NGOs are in worse shape than people admit.
This one hit hard.
Funding dried up when aid budgets shifted. Travel money got cut. Experienced people left when groups couldn’t keep them.
Those that used to show up in force? Many can’t afford to be in the room anymore.
The thing is, this changes who’s present. Who’s watching. Who’s pushing back. When the watchers leave, the watched act different. Accountability needs people in the room. People need resources, and resources are disappearing.
6. Crown jewels are close to breaking down.
For the Special Procedures, working groups, Treaty bodies. The backlog numbers I heard this week were worse than I thought.
This isn’t about reform debates anymore. This is about whether the system can do basic tasks. Whether complaints get handled. Whether reports get reviewed. Whether it works at all.
Here’s what others miss. When paperwork slows, gaps in accountability grow. When gaps grow, space for Indigenous rights shrinks. The chain reaction is real. And it’s speeding up.
7. The rules for who gets to speak are quietly changing.
This is the big one.
While everyone fights about words in specific texts, the rules underneath are shifting. Rules about who speaks. When. And how much weight their voice carries.
Small procedure changes. Harder paths to get credentials. Funding cuts that make it impossible for some of us to show up.
Same goal. Different method. Most people aren’t tracking it because it doesn’t look like an attack. It looks like admin. It looks like efficiency. It looks like adapting to budget limits.
But the effect is the same. Less space. Less voice. Less power.
Before You Go
These are broad strokes. The full picture is still forming.
I have more meetings next week. More conversations scheduled. More data points to triangulate against what I heard this week. Some of what I’m hearing confirms assumptions. Some of it contradicts what I thought I knew. Some of it suggests scenarios I hadn’t considered.
The 20-page assessment needs more editing. Needs more pressure-testing. But the direction is clear enough to share now.
Here’s the orientation shift I’m sitting with after this week.
2026 isn’t 2024 with harder negotiations. This is institutional reorganization dressed as business as usual.
The States that want to constrain space aren’t doing it through dramatic votes anymore. They’re doing it through budget decisions, procedural tweaks, and capacity erosion. Through exhaustion as much as opposition.
The room rewards those who read the new math.
It punishes those who keep trusting the old relationships.
One More Thing
I’m thinking about doing a virtual briefing in early February.
A Zoom call where I walk through the full assessment. Take questions. Talk through implications for different processes and different actors.
If you’d be interested in joining, reply to this email or DM me. Let me know. If there’s enough interest, I’ll set it up and send details.
The BBNJ piece is still coming. But this week demanded a different conversation first.
More soon. See you next week!